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The financial markets in the year 2010 would be largely driven by the monetary policies of various governments.

InvestingBy ArthaYantra January 1, 2010 Leave a comment

It is not longer enough to think that, I am in India, how does it matter if the US Fed has increased or decreased interest rates or if brazil will see a fall in output of sugar cane. The world we live in is more connected than ever; events in small corner of the world…

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Scapegoat or Person of the year- Ben Bernanke

Financial PlanningBy ArthaYantra December 30, 2009 Leave a comment

“In short, you are the definition of a moral hazard. You are repeating the same mistakes as Japan in the 1990′s on a much larger scale while sowing the seeds for the next bubble. The AIG bailout alone is reason enough to send you back to Princeton. I will do everything I can to stop…

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The main events that could push and pull money.In the coming days could be the failure of Dubai world and the exceptionally good employment report in the USA.

EconomyBy ArthaYantra December 1, 2009 Leave a comment

The weather in the continent of monetary policy is showing some signs of change. The main events that could push and pull money in the coming days could be the failure of Dubai world and the exceptionally good employment report in the USA. The ramifications of these events would be discussed in detail in this…

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Cash movements dictate rise and fall.Emerging equity markets could face a correction in the short term in the wake of the recent developments in Dubai and rising inflationary concerns moving into cash or less volatile sectors could be a wise option f

InvestingBy ArthaYantra December 1, 2009 Leave a comment

The two main monetary events outlined in the previous section are expected to pull out cash from equity markets in emerging economies and push it into the US equity markets. The equity markets in Dubai faced severe headwinds in the wake of a major corporate default. More such instances could possibly surface in the short and…

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Gold could be bought on dips at a price of USD 1000-1050 an ounce.Other bullion metals could also be invested in after a 10-15% correction from the present levels.

InvestingBy ArthaYantra December 1, 2009 Leave a comment

The movement of capital from emerging markets to the US equity markets and into more useful commodities like crude oil and natural gas could put dampen the spectacular rally in bullion metal prices. Any affirmative action by the central banks to tame inflation would also affect the price of bullion that is seen as a…

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Sell Equity and long term gold securities. Buy on Short Term Debt, Natural Gas and Crude Oil. Be cautious on gold as it is experiencing a correction.Long term gold looks +ve.

InvestingBy ArthaYantra December 1, 2009 Leave a comment

A common question that we encounter as Investment advisors is “Where should I invest my money?” With all the main stream media chanting the likely hood of Sensex reaching 20,000 soon, no wonder the Indian investors are confused. One has to remember that every bull rally is broken into stages, and when media starts talking…

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Currency carry trades end suddenly causing asset bubble to burst violently and it would be prudent to stay invested in short-term debt and wait for the opportunity.

EconomyBy ArthaYantra November 1, 2009 Leave a comment

There have been many events in the monetary policy galaxy and most of them albeit high profile, are, at best distracters. The reason we brand statements by US president, Chief of PIMCO and the heads of the US and EU central banks as distractions is because every statement made by these people in influential positions…

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US equity markets in the decades ahead as it follows the path adopted by Japan.

InvestingBy ArthaYantra November 1, 2009 Leave a comment

The rally in the global equity markets continues unabated due to the dollar carry trade which has been very profitable so far due to the devaluation of the US dollar to the tune of 25% in the past year. This coupled with massive rallies in the global equity markets and more so in the emerging…

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Natural gas, sugar and wheat look promising while fall in livestock could be traded and crude oil is stable but it holds the trigger to end carry trade.

InvestingBy ArthaYantra November 1, 2009 Leave a comment

The dollar carry trade has been the dominant factor in the commodity markets too. The broader fundamentals with a nascent recovery are still weak to justify a massive rally as witnessed in the past year. Natural gas is one exception and it is trading near its lifetime lows. It could be prudent to invest for…

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Gold continues to be the ‘Davy’s lamp’Silver is expected to be highly profitable for investors as well as traders while other bullion metals are expected to post decent gains in the medium-term future.

InvestingBy ArthaYantra November 1, 2009 Leave a comment

Gold continues to be the ‘Davy’s lamp’ that is shining brighter every day. This eternal, stable and universal currency continues to preserve its purchasing power while all other fiat currencies race to the bottom and so is platinum. Silver is catching up and is poised to reach US $30 an ounce in the short term…

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